Implications
The swirling vortices of Bihar politics have once again thrown up a tantalizing possibility: Nitish Kumar, the state’s Chief Minister and JD(U) supremo, could be back in the embrace of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) by Monday. This news, like a monsoon downpour in parched Bihar, has drenched the political landscape, leaving behind fertile ground for speculation, analysis, and a sense of déjà vu.
To understand the significance of this potential shift, we must first trace the recent political saga in Bihar. In 2020, Nitish Kumar, in a dramatic move, severed ties with the NDA, his partner for 17 years, citing ideological differences. He then joined hands with the RJD, led by his arch-rival Lalu Prasad Yadav, to form the “Mahagathbandhan” government. This unexpected alliance stunned political pundits and sent shockwaves through the national landscape.
However, the honeymoon phase of the Mahagathbandhan proved short-lived. Friction emerged between the JDU and RJD, further fueled by Lalu’s ill health and the resurgence of corruption charges against his family. Internal squabbles, caste dynamics, and Nitish’s own brand of political pragmatism cast a long shadow over the alliance.
Enter whispers of a potential reconciliation with the NDA. BJP leaders, ever eager to exploit political fissures, reportedly reached out to Nitish, sensing an opportunity to reclaim Bihar, a crucial state in their quest for national dominance. Talks of ministerial berths, seat-sharing agreements, and a reworked power-sharing arrangement began to circulate, adding fuel to the speculation.
Now, the question on everyone’s mind is: Why would Nitish, the “suspense master” of Bihar politics, consider returning to the very fold he left just two years ago?
Potential Motivations:
Political Advantage: Nitish could be calculating that aligning with the BJP, a stronger national force, would bolster his position in Bihar and offer him better prospects in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA’s organizational machinery and financial resources could prove invaluable in this endeavor.
Caste Considerations: Bihar’s complex caste tapestry plays a crucial role in every political calculus. Nitish, primarily backed by OBC voters, could be attempting to secure their support by bargaining for a larger share of power within the NDA, potentially diminishing the BJP’s influence among upper castes.
Personal Ambitions: Rumors abound that Nitish harbors national aspirations, possibly eyeing the Vice President’s post. The BJP, with its sway at the center, could provide him with a platform and the necessary support to realize these ambitions.
But the path to reunion isn’t smooth:
Internal Dissent: Within the JDU, a section of leaders oppose any deal with the BJP, fearing Nitish’s complete eclipse under the saffron party’s shadow. This dissent could lead to fissures within the party, potentially even a split.
RJD’s Wrath: The RJD, though weakened, will not take this betrayal lightly. A fierce political battle for Bihar’s control is inevitable, leading to instability and possibly fresh elections.
National Repercussions: Nitish’s flip-flop could damage his carefully cultivated image of a seasoned politician known for his principles. Moreover, this move could further erode public trust in political alliances, contributing to a growing cynicism towards democracy.
Beyond Bihar:
Nitish’s decision will have far-reaching consequences beyond the boundaries of Bihar. It could potentially reconfigure the national political landscape, influencing alliances, electoral strategies, and the balance of power in the 2024 elections.
Opposition Reshuffle: Nitish’s return to the NDA could fracture the already fragile opposition alliance, paving the way for the BJP to further consolidate its power at the center.
Regional Realignments: This move could trigger domino effects across other states, prompting regional parties to re-evaluate their alliances and political standpoints.
Shifting Ideologies: Nitish’s pragmatism, often mistaken for opportunism, could blur the lines between ideologies, further deepening public disillusionment with traditional political labels.
